# Coronavirus, synchronous failure and the global phase-shift
**URL:** https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/1958
**Category:** General
**Created:** [3 March 2020 06:57 UTC](https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/1958 "2020-03-03T06:57:59Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@chris](https://community.coops.tech/u/chris)
#### Post date: [3 March 2020 06:57 UTC](https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/1958/1 "2020-03-03T06:57:59Z")
This is a substantial article that I’d urge everybody to read, I have been following and supporting Nafeez Ahmed’s journalism for a long time and I can’t recommend his work enough, this article is especially important:
[https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift-3f00d4552940](https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift-3f00d4552940)
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### Author:  [@aaron](https://community.coops.tech/u/aaron)
#### Post date: [3 March 2020 07:58 UTC](https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/1958/2 "2020-03-03T07:58:18Z")
Thanks, Chris, it’s a very good read, as you say, if very long!
As it happens, we are proposing to move to remote working with immediate effect today, and potentially also to notify our clients that we will not be doing any face to face meetings until further notice.
This is quite a big step, as it may harm our chances of winning new work (remote versus in person pitches, for example), so we may need to consider other options as well.
Ian shared this article [https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/preparing-for-coronavirus-to-strike-the-u-s/](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/preparing-for-coronavirus-to-strike-the-u-s/) which is a bit shorter and along similar lines in terms of the science and response required.
I’d be interested to hear other perspectives and what other coops are doing (or not doing)
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### Author:  [@merefield](https://community.coops.tech/u/merefield)
#### Post date: [4 March 2020 07:41 UTC](https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/1958/3 "2020-03-04T07:41:06Z")
We have no choice but to work remotely at my agency as no-one lives within 150 miles of each other!
So the virus does not present anything new from that perspective. You might say we are lucky to be set up this way? I think remote working will be more and more common in the future and it’s surprising to me how well it’s worked for us so far, though there are subtle and not so subtle effects on your interactions you need to be mindful of. For example, in my experience it can develop and exacerbate misunderstandings and disagreements.
We use Discourse, Mattermost (our own instances) and Zoom to communicate.
I do wonder how Zoom will hold up during the next couple of months though!
I notice Wired has some suggestions for working this way:
> **[How to Work From Home Without Losing Your Mind](https://www.wired.com/story/how-to-work-from-home-without-losing-your-mind/)**
>
> Coronavirus concerns have some businesses urging employees to work from home. If you’re telecommuting, for public health reasons or otherwise, remember: Boundaries are your friend.
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### Author:  [@glowkeeper](https://community.coops.tech/u/glowkeeper)
#### Post date: [4 March 2020 15:04 UTC](https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/1958/4 "2020-03-04T15:04:57Z")
That’s a great read - thanks @chris!
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### Author:  [@chris](https://community.coops.tech/u/chris)
#### Post date: [11 March 2020 22:08 UTC](https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/1958/5 "2020-03-11T22:08:57Z")
The UK appears to be over the cusp of the threshold for exponential growth rates of COVID-19 infections:
The graph above was taken from the following (quite long) article, which is worth spending some time reading.
> **[Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now](https://tomaspueyo.medium.com/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca)**
>
> Politicians and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?
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### Author:  [@chris](https://community.coops.tech/u/chris)
#### Post date: [12 March 2020 14:31 UTC](https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/1958/6 "2020-03-12T14:31:33Z")
> **[A Movement to Stop the COVID-19 Pandemic | #StayTheFuckHome](https://staythefuckhome.com/)**
>
> Our governments can't do it alone, we have to take action now! Do your part and stay the fuck home!
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### Author:  [@chris](https://community.coops.tech/u/chris)
#### Post date: [12 March 2020 14:43 UTC](https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/1958/7 "2020-03-12T14:43:22Z")
Another _essential read_ from [Nafeez Ahmed](https://twitter.com/NafeezAhmed):
> **[This is how America and Britain are maximising coronavirus deaths](https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/science-shows-that-only-radical-action-can-avert-a-coronavirus-bloodbath-2e9955a724d2)**
>
> Only radical action and social distancing can avert a bloodbath
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### Author:  [@kawaiipunk](https://community.coops.tech/u/kawaiipunk)
#### Post date: [12 March 2020 21:09 UTC](https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/1958/8 "2020-03-12T21:09:47Z")
> [@Coronavirus Tech Handbook](https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-tech-handbook/1969):
>
> Hello friends, Introducing the [Coronavirus Tech Handbook](http://coronavirustechhandbook.com/), a crowdsourced resource for technologists building things related to the coronavirus outbreak. Data, infographics, tools, resources, papers, etc, as well as a section for best practices around remote working and event alternatives. This issue affects all of us, so please contribute where you can, and share widely. [https://coronavirustechhandbook.com](http://coronavirustechhandbook.com/) Stay safe out there. Ed [@nwspk](http://twitter.com/nwspk)
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### Author:  [@chris](https://community.coops.tech/u/chris)
#### Post date: [20 March 2020 15:46 UTC](https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/1958/10 "2020-03-20T15:46:30Z")
I have just deleted a message in this thread because I made a stupid mathematical error in it, sorry, things are not quite as bad as I feared.
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### Author:  [@chris](https://community.coops.tech/u/chris)
#### Post date: [21 March 2020 10:18 UTC](https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/1958/11 "2020-03-21T10:18:32Z")
Another great article from Nafeez Ahmed:
> **[DECLASSIFIED UK: Coronavirus exposes who Britain’s national security industry...](https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2020-03-21-coronavirus-exposes-who-britains-national-security-industry-is-designed-to-protect-not-the-public/)**
>
> The British government has long been aware of the looming inevitability of an imminent pandemic flu crisis. Yet coronavirus starkly illustrates how outmoded and dangerous the UK establishment’s national security paradigm really is.
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### Author:  [@alex](https://community.coops.tech/u/alex)
#### Post date: [21 March 2020 17:52 UTC](https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/1958/12 "2020-03-21T17:52:09Z")
You and the government both but in the opposite direction. 🙂
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### Author:  [@chris](https://community.coops.tech/u/chris)
#### Post date: [22 March 2020 12:28 UTC](https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/1958/13 "2020-03-22T12:28:04Z")
The author of this article, posted above:
> **[Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now](https://tomaspueyo.medium.com/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca)**
>
> Politicians and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?
Has written a follow up which is also well worth a read:
> **[Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance](https://tomaspueyo.medium.com/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56)**
>
> What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time
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### Author:  [@chris](https://community.coops.tech/u/chris)
#### Post date: [23 March 2020 19:48 UTC](https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/1958/14 "2020-03-23T19:48:22Z")
A three part series of articles by Nafeez Ahmed have been published this evening in the [Byline Times](https://bylinetimes.com/):
> **[COVID-19 SPECIAL INVESTIGATION: Part One – The Politicised Science that...](https://bylinetimes.com/2020/03/23/covid-19-special-investigation-part-one-the-politicised-science-that-nudged-the-johnson-government-to-safeguard-the-economy-over-british-lives/)**
>
> In the first part of his investigation, Nafeez Ahmed looks at the serious flaws of scientific fatalism and inaccurate modelling.
> **[COVID-19 SPECIAL INVESTIGATION: Part Two – Government Documents Reveal...](https://bylinetimes.com/2020/03/23/covid-19-special-investigation-part-two-government-documents-reveal-concern-for-economic-and-business-impacts-prevented-early-action/)**
>
> Nafeez Ahmed on evidence that Boris Johnson's Government was more focused on saving money than lives when it came to issues such as school closures.
> **[COVID-19 SPECIAL INVESTIGATION: Part Three – Behavioural Scientists told...](https://bylinetimes.com/2020/03/23/covid-19-special-investigation-part-three-behavioural-scientists-told-government-to-use-herd-immunity-to-justify-business-as-usual/)**
>
> In the third part of his investigation, Nafeez Ahmed reveals how laissez-faire attitudes have hampered a proper response to the Coronavirus pandemic in the UK.
This is also worth noting, the code used to originally model the pandemic for the UK Government was written to model flu pandemics, over 13 years ago and is _“thousands of lines of undocumented C”_…
>
It is to be welcomed that it will eventually be made public, after it has been refactored, however if the original code isn’t made public it will inevitably result in some people assuming that something is being hidden…
>
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### Author:  [@merefield](https://community.coops.tech/u/merefield)
#### Post date: [23 March 2020 23:02 UTC](https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/1958/15 "2020-03-23T23:02:24Z")
> [@chris](#):
>
> however if the original code isn’t made public it will inevitably result in some people assuming that something is being hidden…
Couldn’t agree more!
If ever there was an appropriate moment for open source, THIS IS IT!!
How can you write a serious paper like that with such huge policy implications and _not_ share the code?!
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### Author:  [@chris](https://community.coops.tech/u/chris)
#### Post date: [26 March 2020 20:27 UTC](https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/1958/16 "2020-03-26T20:27:11Z")
Nafeez Ahmed has written an article on the PR spin around _“herd immunity”_:
> **[The Coronavirus Crisis: Oxford Model Touting 'Herd Immunity' was Promoted by...](https://bylinetimes.com/2020/03/26/the-coronavirus-crisis-oxford-model-touting-herd-immunity-was-promoted-by-pr-agency-tied-to-ministry-of-defence-and-nudge-unit/)**
>
> Nafeez Ahmed reports on the story behind a new study suggesting that nearly half of the UK population may already have been infected with the Coronavirus and claims that this could provide 'herd immunity'.
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### Author:  [@chris](https://community.coops.tech/u/chris)
#### Post date: [30 March 2020 17:41 UTC](https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/1958/17 "2020-03-30T17:41:08Z")
A post was split to a new topic: [Energy Efficient IoT Deployment for Systems of the Future](https://community.coops.tech/t/energy-efficient-iot-deployment-for-systems-of-the-future/1996)
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### Author:  [@chris](https://community.coops.tech/u/chris)
#### Post date: [30 March 2020 13:11 UTC](https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/1958/18 "2020-03-30T13:11:37Z")
If you have been following Nafeez Ahmed’s Coronavirus reporting then this audio interview is worth a listen (Nafeez joins at 16 minutes in and and Coronavirus discussion starts at around 21 minutes in):
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### Author:  [@chris](https://community.coops.tech/u/chris)
#### Post date: [8 May 2020 10:41 UTC](https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/1958/20 "2020-05-08T10:41:41Z")
> [@chris](#):
>
> It is to be welcomed that it will eventually be made public, after it has been refactored, however if the original code isn’t made public it will inevitably result in some people assuming that something is being hidden…
So the refactored code, not the original, has been released:
> **[Code Review of Ferguson's Model – The Daily Sceptic](https://dailysceptic.org/2020/05/06/code-review-of-fergusons-model/)**
>
> by Sue Denim \[Please note: a follow-up analysis is now \[…\]
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### Author:  [@nick](https://community.coops.tech/u/nick)
#### Post date: [8 May 2020 12:22 UTC](https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/1958/21 "2020-05-08T12:22:46Z")
There is a bit more positive portrayal of the code here:
GitHub issue: [We, the undersigned software engineers, call for any papers based on this codebase to be immediately retracted. · Issue #165 · mrc-ide/covid-sim · GitHub](https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim/issues/165#issuecomment-625186633) (also includes lots of negative comments).
And [John Carmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Carmack)’s opinion [https://twitter.com/ID\_AA\_Carmack/status/1254878975459045381](https://twitter.com/ID_AA_Carmack/status/1254878975459045381)
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### Author:  [@chris](https://community.coops.tech/u/chris)
#### Post date: [7 June 2020 21:14 UTC](https://community.coops.tech/t/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/1958/22 "2020-06-07T21:14:44Z")
Another essential and spot-on, long read from Nafeez Ahmed on the big picture:
> **[White Supremacism and the Earth System](https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/white-supremacism-and-the-earth-system-fa14e0ea6147)**
>
> The protests, the pandemic, and the planet: from systemic decline to civilizational renewal